Russia has begun constructing new military infrastructure along its 1,300 km border with Finland, in what Finnish defense officials believe is not a prelude to direct aggression but a strategic move to test NATO’s readiness and cohesion. According to Finnish military intelligence and statements by top defense officials, the buildup is expected to accelerate once Russia frees up resources from its ongoing war in Ukraine.
“This is a clear sign that Russia is preparing for the post-Ukraine scenario,” said Major General Vesa Virtanen, Chief of Staff of the Finnish Defence Forces, in an interview with Die Welt. “Once they can withdraw their forces from Ukraine, they will move them to our border.”
Border militarization follows NATO expansion
Since Finland’s accession to NATO in 2023, and Sweden’s subsequent entry in 2024, the geopolitical balance in Northern Europe has shifted dramatically. The Baltic Sea has effectively become a NATO-dominated zone. This has prompted a structural response from Moscow, which earlier this year restructured its military districts, creating a new Leningrad Military District that now includes the heavily militarized enclave of Kaliningrad.
“This change is not necessarily offensive,” says Daivis Petraitis, a Lithuanian military analyst at the Baltic Defence College. “It reflects a defensive posture by Russia in the Baltic region. The Kremlin has realized that projecting military power in this area is no longer viable.”
Strategy or provocation?
While Finnish intelligence does not consider the current Russian posture an imminent threat, it is viewed as part of a broader Russian effort to probe NATO’s Article 5 — the collective defense clause. In recent years, Russia has already tested NATO’s resolve through hybrid tactics: orchestrated mass migration, cyberattacks, GPS signal jamming, and disinformation campaigns.
“This is how Russia gauges our unity and determination,” Virtanen said. “It’s not just about troops and tanks, it’s about strategic signaling.”
Petraitis adds that Russia’s military culture differs sharply from that of the West. “They don’t operate based on multiple scenario planning. Instead, they follow strict doctrinal plans and make mechanical calculations: if NATO adds 10 new divisions, Russia calculates exactly how many defensive or offensive units they need in response.”
The closed border and its economic toll
Finland’s eastern border with Russia has been completely closed for over a year, a move prompted by security concerns and migratory pressure allegedly instigated by Moscow. For Finnish municipalities along the border, this has had significant economic repercussions.
Despite the tensions, President Alexander Stubb of Finland has emphasized that a direct Russian attack remains “very unlikely.” Nonetheless, the government is not taking chances. Defense preparedness has been ramped up, and Finland continues to integrate deeply into NATO structures.
A defensive reset — but the clock is ticking
According to Petraitis, Russia’s internal military logic suggests it will spend the next few years building purely defensive capacity in its new Leningrad Military District. This reorientation, however, provides only a temporary window of strategic calm.
“If Russia believes it lacks the resources to match NATO’s rearmament, it might become more open to negotiation,” Petraitis explains. “But if it believes it can keep up or surpass us, it won’t hesitate to confront.”
Petraitis also warns against underestimating the resilience of the Russian state. “It’s not about Putin alone. The military system consists of up to 28 institutions, all functioning according to a well-established doctrine. Even if Putin disappears, the system will find ‘another Putin’.”
Long-term vigilance is key
The message from military experts is clear: NATO’s response must be sustained and credible over decades. Temporary buildups or symbolic gestures will not suffice.
“Russia respects strength,” Petraitis concludes. “If we falter or waver, they will notice — and they will act accordingly.”
