Tensions between the United States, Denmark, and Greenland have reached new heights amid controversial statements from President Donald Trump and an upcoming high-profile visit by Vice President J.D. Vance and Second Lady Usha Vance to the Arctic territory.
High tension around US Vice President’s Greenland visit
On Friday, Vice President J.D. Vance will visit Pituffik Space Base (formerly known as Thule Air Base), marking a notable escalation from the initially planned unofficial visit by Second Lady Usha Vance. The original agenda, which included attending a dogsled race in Sisimiut and visiting Nuuk, Greenland’s capital, was abruptly changed, causing diplomatic friction.
This follows Trump’s provocative remarks earlier this week, asserting that the US would “go as far as necessary” to gain control of Greenland. Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen sharply responded, affirming that Denmark would never allow the US to dictate the future of the Danish Realm.
Expert scenarios: Negotiation, status quo, or escalation?
Jon Rahbek-Clemmensen from the Centre for Arctic Security Studies at the Danish Defence College describes the current situation as Denmark’s “biggest foreign policy crisis since World War II.” He, alongside Ulrik Pram Gad, senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies, outlines four scenarios for TV2:
Scenario 1: An agreement between Denmark, Greenland, and the US
Experts consider this the most probable outcome. It would involve concessions from Denmark and Greenland, potentially including enhanced defense cooperation or an agreement restricting investments from China, allowing Trump to claim a political victory. According to Gad, such a diplomatic resolution is essential for reducing tensions.
Scenario 2: Status quo continues
Another plausible scenario sees the Greenland issue remaining a rhetorical tool for Trump without tangible actions. Rahbek-Clemmensen suggests that the issue might periodically resurface but fade without significant consequences, lasting throughout Trump’s presidency without resolution.
Scenario 3: US escalates diplomatic and economic pressure
Less likely but still possible is heightened US pressure, including increased unannounced visits from US officials, military exercises without Danish consent, tariffs targeting Denmark, or special visa restrictions for Danish citizens. This scenario would damage US credibility as an ally but may not deter Trump, according to Rahbek-Clemmensen.
Gad emphasizes that Greenlandic opposition to joining the US is a significant barrier. Any unilateral declaration of Greenland as American territory would severely undermine post-World War II international law norms.
Scenario 4: US military occupation of Greenland
Both experts regard this scenario as highly improbable due to its extreme geopolitical implications. Rahbek-Clemmensen acknowledges that Trump’s rhetoric makes such a scenario slightly conceivable but warns it would devastate US alliances and likely dismantle NATO in its current form. Gad similarly doubts a military takeover, describing it as “bizarre” and nearly impossible.
Geopolitical implications
The uncertainty around Trump’s intentions and his recent rhetoric have pushed US-Greenland-Denmark relations into a precarious balance. As Vice President Vance’s visit approaches, all eyes remain on Greenland to see whether diplomacy or escalation will prevail in this Arctic geopolitical drama.
