Russia does not currently have the capability for a large-scale conventional attack on Sweden, according to Sweden’s military intelligence and security service (Must). However, the threat level is expected to rise significantly within the next few years.
Russian forces in the Baltic Sea region remain active
While a large part of Russia’s military resources is currently committed to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, substantial forces remain stationed in the Baltic Sea region. These include warships, fighter jets, nuclear-capable missile systems, and extensive cyber warfare capabilities.
Thomas Nilsson, head of Must, emphasized that although an immediate conventional threat is unlikely, Russia holds sufficient resources to destabilize countries surrounding the Baltic Sea. He noted, “They have resources available today that could cause significant trouble.”
Potential for cyber threats and nuclear posturing
According to Nilsson, Russia could execute sophisticated cyberattacks that may cause extensive disruptions to Swedish society and critical infrastructure. Additionally, he highlighted the presence of Russia’s Iskander missile systems stationed in the Kaliningrad exclave, associated frequently with tactical nuclear capabilities.
Nilsson clarified that, although the immediate risk of nuclear attacks hasn’t increased, recent adjustments in Russia’s nuclear doctrine raise concern. “These are resources that are available, and we hear how Russia is talking; we note that they are making changes to their nuclear doctrine,” he stated.
Increased threat after the Ukraine conflict
Must predicts a significant potential rise in the threat to Sweden and neighboring countries once the war in Ukraine concludes. This change in threat landscape could occur rapidly as Russia reallocates experienced military personnel and equipment from Ukraine back to the Baltic Sea region.
The Danish intelligence service (FE) shares similar concerns, suggesting Russia could initiate smaller-scale conflicts within six months post-war. Within two years, Russia might pose credible threats to NATO countries or manage a regional conflict effectively. FE also projects that within five years, Russia could be ready for large-scale warfare in Europe.
Russian military recovery driven by international support
Despite heavy losses in Ukraine, Russia has managed to replenish its military forces relatively swiftly, primarily through the recruitment of highly-paid contract soldiers. Furthermore, accelerated military-industrial production, bolstered by assistance from China and other countries, has allowed Russia to partially restore its combat capabilities.
“They have enormous losses, but so far, they have managed to replenish them,” Nilsson explained, indicating the rapid restoration of Russia’s military strength remains plausible.
Implications for NATO and Swedish defense policy
This evolving threat underscores the urgency for Sweden and NATO allies to reassess defense strategies and accelerate military preparedness. The analysis implies that NATO countries must enhance their defense capabilities and readiness to deter potential Russian aggression effectively.
In conclusion, while immediate conventional warfare against Sweden remains improbable, heightened vigilance and preparedness are critical as geopolitical tensions persist and Russia rebuilds its military strength in the Baltic region.
