Iceland is facing an important decision about its future in international politics. As tensions rise worldwide and alliances shift, the country must decide whether to continue relying on the United States for defense or strengthen its relationship with Europe. With Donald Trump back as U.S. president and the European Union pushing for stronger unity, Iceland’s next steps will shape its role in the world.
Iceland and USA: a complicated history
For decades, Iceland has depended on the USA for security. During World War II and the Cold War, American troops were stationed in Iceland, and the Keflavík Air Base became a key part of NATO’s defense strategy. Although the base officially closed in 2006, the U.S. never fully left. Since 2016, its military presence has grown again, with troops rotating in and out and new military facilities being built.
Recently, however, Trump has shown skepticism about NATO and questioned long-standing alliances. His administration has also made bold claims about expanding U.S. influence in the Arctic, including a controversial push to acquire Greenland. These changes raise concerns about whether the U.S. remains a reliable partner for Iceland.
Looking toward Europe
With uncertainty surrounding the U.S., Iceland’s Government is considering a closer relationship with the European Union. Although Iceland is already part of the European Economic Area (EEA) and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), it is not an EU member. The coalition government elected in 2024 has promised to hold a referendum by 2027 on whether to join the EU.
Some politicians, such as Social Democratic MP Dagur B. Eggertsson, argue that Iceland should speed up this process. Public opinion seems to be shifting in favor of EU membership, with a January 2025 poll showing that 58% of Icelanders support reopening membership talks.
Balancing security and diplomacy
Iceland has traditionally tried to stay neutral and work with many international partners, but this approach may no longer be enough. Security experts believe the country should strengthen ties with NATO allies, especially other Nordic countries, while also playing a more active role in EU foreign policy.
Professor Baldur Þórhallsson, a political scientist at the University of Iceland, believes that Iceland should maintain its relationship with Washington but also build stronger European alliances. He points out that the U.S. still sees Iceland as strategically important, especially in the Arctic, where tensions with Russia and China are increasing.
One major concern is Russia. Experts warn that Iceland is vulnerable to cyberattacks and sabotage, especially because its undersea internet cables are essential for communication. Trump’s administration has downplayed the Russian threat, making it even more critical for Iceland to take security into its own hands. Strengthening defense cooperation with Nordic countries and participating in EU security programs could be a way forward.
What’s next for Iceland?
Foreign Minister Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir has promised to create a new defense strategy for Iceland. However, as a country without its own military, Iceland’s security depends on its alliances. With Trump’s unpredictable leadership and Europe’s growing influence, the country must carefully weigh its options.
Iceland could choose to deepen its ties with Europe, renegotiate its defense agreement with USA, or increase its role in NATO. Whatever path it takes, the decision will shape its future for years to come. The world is changing, and Iceland must decide where it stands.
