The Danish Defense Intelligence Service (Forsvarets Efterretningstjeneste, FE) has released a new threat assessment report warning that Europe could face a large-scale war within the next five years. The report emphasizes that if the conflict in Ukraine stops or becomes frozen—and if NATO does not significantly ramp up its forces—Russia may be positioned to escalate military tensions across the continent.
Three scenarios of escalation
FE’s assessment outlines three distinct scenarios based on Russia’s rapid capacity build-up after a de-escalation in Ukraine:
- Scenario 1: within approximately six months, Russia could initiate a conflict described as “a local war in a country bordering Russia”
- Scenario 2: within two years, Russia might “pose a credible threat to one or more NATO countries and thereby be ready for a regional war against several countries in the Baltic Sea region”
- Scenario 3: in about five years, Russia may “be ready for a large-scale war on the European continent, where the USA does not intervene”
These scenarios assume that the United States will refrain from intervening and that NATO will not sufficiently upgrade its military capabilities.
FE emphasized the urgency
FE intelligence chief Anja Dalgaard-Nielsen provided crucial context for these projections. She stated:
“We are setting up three scenarios, which are based on the fact that the USA does not come to help, and that NATO does not ramp up its forces. What we are showing is the timeline for capacity building on the Russian side, and how quickly it can progress after an end to the war in Ukraine.”
Her comments underline the urgency and rapidity with which Russia’s military capabilities could evolve if current conditions persist.
Arctic ambitions
FE’s report also distinguishes between the threats facing different regions:
- Denmark vs. Greenland and the Faroe Islands:
FE notes that while Denmark faces an increasing risk, Greenland and the Faroe Islands are viewed within a North American context. This suggests that Russia is less likely to involve these territories in a European conflict, preferring to avoid direct confrontation with the United States. - Russian Actions in the Arctic:
FE warns of an aggressive posture by Russia in the Arctic, highlighting that “Russia prioritizes the region highly and will demonstrate strength.”Moreover, regarding Russia’s expanding military presence in the region, FE states: “If Russia receives more resources to ramp up its forces in the Arctic, it is likely that Russia will continue and possibly expand its offensive behavior.”
These insights signal that Russia’s ambitions in the Arctic could further destabilize regional security, with increased hybrid warfare tactics such as simulated attacks near Western naval vessels.
Norwegian perspective
According to NRK, the Norwegian Intelligence Service (E-tjenesten) recently released its own threat assessment, which notably diverges from the Danish outlook. While the Danish report warns of a large-scale war in Europe, the Norwegian assessment does not use such language. Instead, it emphasizes the risk of Russian sabotage activities within Norway.
The Norwegian report highlights that although the overall military threat from Russia is expected to increase in the coming years, there are no specific indications of an imminent military attack. Additionally, the report notes that Russian efforts to recruit criminals for sabotage operations have been observed. The Russian Embassy, however, has dismissed these assessments as unfounded.
International broader Context
FE’s report emerges amid rising international tensions. Recent comments by U.S. President Donald Trump—who has repeatedly expressed his desire to resolve the conflict in Ukraine and has engaged in talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin—appear to have influenced the Danish intelligence outlook. While the Danish report foresees the potential for large-scale conflict, differing assessments, such as that from Norway, suggest a more nuanced threat landscape where sabotage and hybrid warfare may play a significant role.
